全球经济是否转型?发生什么事?

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舜本
Posts: 213
Joined: 07-10-05 Fri 2:09 pm

Bailout Plan Rejected, Markets Plunge,
Forcing New Scramble to Solve Crisis


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122270285663785991.html

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WASHINGTON -- The House of Representatives defeated the White House's historic $700 billion financial-rescue package -- a stunning turn of events that sent the stock market into a tailspin and added to concerns that the U.S. faces a prolonged recession if the legislation isn't revived.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sustained its biggest point drop in history and its biggest closing decline since the day the markets re-opened after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. The Dow, which had opened sharply lower on fears of more possible bank failures, finished the day down 7%, with a 777.68 point drop to 10365.45. Losses to shares on the broader Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index amounted, on paper, to $1.2 trillion -- eclipsing the size of the proposed bailout package. The widely watched VIX index, a measure of market volatility often called "the fear index," closed at its highest levels in its 28-year history.

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舜本
Posts: 213
Joined: 07-10-05 Fri 2:09 pm

救助计划可能无法阻止美国经济衰退
2008年09月29日15:41
http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/column.asp

国会在周末敲定的救助美国金融系统的计划为困境之中的信贷市场提供了急需的缓和剂,但该计划不太可能阻止经济滑向衰退。

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)首席经济学家布鲁斯•卡斯曼(Bruce Kasman)说,这个计划有一定的好处,但我们认为经济已经陷得太深,难以避免损害。

最近经济方面传出的消息可谓暗淡无比。美国商务部上周报告说,新房销量上个月急剧下跌,表明房市状况继续恶化。另一份报告显示出,大宗商品销量8月也出现下跌,表明制造业趋于衰退,商业开支下滑。

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舜本
Posts: 213
Joined: 07-10-05 Fri 2:09 pm

谢国忠:中国应既不赔钱又救美国 联合日本等四国主动出击
2008年09月28日 08:47凤凰财经专稿

http://finance.ifeng.com/news/opinion/f ... 0276.shtml
舜本
Posts: 213
Joined: 07-10-05 Fri 2:09 pm

美国次贷危机
http://baike.baidu.com/view/1256938.htm

1.次贷危机的概念
  次贷危机又称次级房贷危机,也译为次债危机。它是指一场发生在美国,因次级抵押贷款机构破产、投资基金被迫关闭、股市剧烈震荡引起的风暴。它致使全球主要金融市场隐约出现流动性不足危机。美国“次贷危机”是从2006年春季开始逐步显现的。2007年8月席卷美国、欧盟和日本等世界主要金融市场。

2.次贷危机的产生
  引起美国次级抵押贷款市场风暴的直接原因是美国的利率上升和住房市场持续降温。次级抵押贷款是指一些贷款机构向信用程度较差和收入不高的借款人提供的贷款。
  利息上升,导致还款压力增大,很多本来信用不好的用户感觉还款压力大,出现违约的可能,对银行贷款的收回造成影响的危机。

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舜本
Posts: 213
Joined: 07-10-05 Fri 2:09 pm

Lost vote for US bank rescue plan may strengthen recoveryDavid Wighton: Business Editor's commentary
September 30, 2008

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 849614.ece

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It is easy to see why investors were spooked by yesterday’s events, even before the news from Capitol Hill. Bradford & Bingley nationalised by the British Government; Fortis nationalised by the Belgian, Dutch and Luxembourg governments; Glitnir nationalised by the Icelandic Government; Hypo Real Estate, the commercial property lender, bailed out by the German Government and banks; Wachovia, the fourth-biggest bank in the United States, taken over for next to nothing by Citigroup with help from the US authorities.
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The delay will be damaging but yesterday’s vote could result in a better scheme that deals more directly with problem institutions and better protects the US taxpayer. Yet there is a chance that the rebels dig in their heels and say “no” to more government intervention. There is a chance that they vote for the sort of response that turned the 1929 Crash into the Depression.
舜本
Posts: 213
Joined: 07-10-05 Fri 2:09 pm

就如前几天分析那样,
美国需要做一场戏,表示他们拒绝政府对经济的干预,
no to interventionism。他们在97/8年时,对着
‘逼死人’的亚洲经济风暴,大大声的骂,
“亚洲政府,没有自由!动不动就干预经济!!!反对!!!反对!!!”

这次,他们怎样都需要演一出戏拒绝政治干预经济,然后又闪电式的通过政府救援经济方案。只是,他们做得比较classsy,很gentleman这样的。
舜本
Posts: 213
Joined: 07-10-05 Fri 2:09 pm

Senate backs rescue plan by wide margin
By Daniel Dombey and Krishna Guha in Washington, Tony Barber and Nikki Tait in Brussels and Ben Hall in Paris

Published: October 1 2008 19:28 | Last updated: October 2 2008 03:06
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c2b092a6-8fe4 ... ck_check=1


The US Senate on Wednesday night approved by a large margin the Bush administration’s $700bn plan to rescue the financial system, while European policymakers clashed on Wednesday over how to protect their own banks.

Both Barack Obama and John McCain, the Democratic and Republican candidates for the president, backed the measure in the 74-25 vote in favour.

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舜本
Posts: 213
Joined: 07-10-05 Fri 2:09 pm

“天塌不下来!”
时间:2008年09月19日 07:54:01 中财网


http://www1.cfi.net.cn/newspage.aspx?id ... eSupport=1

  香港中文大学校长刘遵义认为美国金融风暴最坏时刻已过
  "天塌不下来!"17日晚,香港中文大学校长、经济学家刘遵义在港发表演讲,对中国经济充满乐观,并认为美国金融风暴最坏时刻已过,将趋于稳定。他还称此次金融风暴的最大教训在于"借钱无风险"及金融产品不透明,直斥巴克莱收购雷曼是个错误。
  三个误会
  刘遵义是在中国高校香港校友联合会金融学会的成立酒会上作上述演讲的,香港金融界不少高层人士前来倾听。
  "如今盛行说通胀高企、出口下滑和股市下跌,现在金融风暴又袭来,不少人对中国经济忧心忡忡。"刘遵义开门见山,称前三者"都是误会",其实对中国经济影响不大。
  刘遵义分析,中国的通胀率已经得到控制,年底可降到4%到5%.长远来看,通胀主要由农产品和能源价格推动,农产品上涨长远来看利于中国农业发展,而石油价格在他看来会继续回落,直至60美元/桶,不超过80美元/桶。他称原油其实供过于求,只是炼油不够,油价炒作虚高。
  出口方面,刘遵义算了一笔账,中国对美出口一美元,只赚17.7美分,十分微利。虽然出口量大,但对经济增长的贡献却小,因此出口下滑对经济影响不大。他预计人民币对美元汇率短期内保持不变,因为美国经济不景气,又需要中国生产的日用品,难抵升价。
  至于股市,刘遵义称,从过去30年来看,中国的资产价格跟股票价格关系不大,中国经济也不是靠股市发展的,股市下跌更多是影响股民的心情。
  "三个误会澄清了,所谓的严峻挑战并不足虑。"刘遵义说,"跟1997、1998年相比,现在中国的实力雄厚许多,那时都挺过来了,现在怕什么?"
  相对剥离
  外部环境不利,中国难独善其身?刘遵义否定这一说法,他认为中国尽管GDP增速会下降,但仍可相对"剥离"于世界经济衰退潮之外。
  "美国打个喷嚏,世界就感冒的时代,已经过去了。"他分析,包括中国在内的金砖四国都不是靠出口来发展经济,外围环境对国内经济影响不及根本。尤其中国内需强大,经济基本面良好,而且财政健康,基础设施、教育、医疗等领域还有很多机会促进增长、改善民生。
  而且,他称美国金融风暴最坏的时刻已经过去,虽然不排除还会倒两三家公司,但对世界经济的冲击将趋于稳定。(记者 辛灵)
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王培贤
Posts: 165
Joined: 18-01-08 Fri 10:23 am
Location: 太平

转贴:
王培贤 wrote:
老黄 wrote: http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/84184?tid=1
美救市方案否決‧全球股市暴跌
納吉:馬可擋經濟風暴


2008-10-01

(吉隆坡)美國眾議院否決7000億美元紓困案引爆全球金融與經濟危機憂慮;副首相兼財政部長拿督斯里納吉表示,國家經濟基礎強穩,擁有強韌的內需來抵抗美國經濟風暴所構成的衝擊。

他說,大馬的金融體系依然穩健和鞏固,具備抵擋美國眾議院否決7000億美元救市方案所造成的衝擊。
最新消息:

美议院已批新修改的美元救市方案,待周五最终裁判...

新修改方案包括:

提高美国联邦存款保险公司(Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. FDIC)的上限从10万美元至25万美元,

另外也批了FDIC向财部的无限贷款,之前是限制30billion(不好意思,不懂billion的中文叫什么...)...

预知详情,请看下面:

http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire ... le/129846/

U.S. Senate Passes New Version of Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008

(CEP News) - As hoped and awaited, the U.S. Senate passed an updated version of the U.S. Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008. The legislation now needs final approval from the House of Representatives, to be decided on Friday.

The bill now includes a revision to the FDIC's insurance limit from $100k to $250k and a ten-year $150.5 billion package of tax breaks. The bill also includes provisions for the FDIC to draw on an unlimited line of credit from the Treasury Department compared to the current $30 billion loan limit it currently has.


Otherwise, it is virtually identical to the one that failed in the House of Representatives earlier this week. The bill would allow the Treasury to purchase up to $700 billion in illiquid assets from financial institutions in various chunks.

Still, given the events two days ago, when the House rejected the first version, fear that the legislation may yet again face defeat permeates every corner of the market. The first rejection of the bill Monday triggered one of the worst days ever seen on Wall Street and unprecedented losses in North America's major stock indexes.

The view from many U.S. Senators is that the losses on Monday reversed public opinion of the bill, which will likely prompt many of those who opposed the vote just a few days ago to reconsider their votes.

In an interview with CNBC Wednesday morning, U.S. Senator Bob Corker said he fully expects the House now has the votes to pass the $700 billion rescue plan.

On Tuesday, Senate Majority leader Harry Reid said both Senate Democrats and Republicans believe it is essential to work quickly on the legislation to "restore confidence to our financial system and strengthen the economy."

"It is my hope that with the improvements we have made to the administration's proposal, the Senate will pass the legislation [Wednesday] and the House of Representatives will follow suit soon after," he said.

In a press conference on Wednesday, House speaker Nancy Pelosi said the bill could not return to the House floor before Friday. She also said she wanted the bill to include additional provisions to the Senate version.

The news comes on the heels of a string of bad news for U.S. financial markets, with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation seizing Washington Mutual and selling most of its assets to JPMorgan Chase on Friday, followed by the acquisition of Wachovia and subsequent sale to Citigroup on Monday.

In recent weeks, the Fed agreed to an $85 billion loan to American International Group, but allowed Lehman Brothers to file bankruptcy and subsequently be sold to Barclays PLC.

The impact of the turmoil has also reached as far as Europe with Fortis Bank in the Benelux, Hypo Real Estate Bank in Germany and Bradford & Bingley in the UK all receiving government funds on Monday.

By Erik Kevin Franco, [email protected], edited by Megan Ainscow, [email protected] CEP Newswires - CEP News © 2008. All Rights Reserved. www.economicnews.ca

The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of CEP News Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of CEP News.
舜本
Posts: 213
Joined: 07-10-05 Fri 2:09 pm

美国国会众议院通过大规模金融救援方案

http://finance.ifeng.com/zq/qqgs/zbsc/2 ... 5437.shtml

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10月3日,美国国会众议院议长佩洛西(左二)展示已签署的金融救援方案。当日,美国国会众议院以263票对171票的投票结果通过了经过修改的大规模金融救援方案。该方案在众议院通过后,将交由总统布什签署生效。美国国会参议院已于1日通过这份总额达7000亿美元的救市方案。新华社记者张岩摄

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